With Pakistani housing market performing strongly in the last few months of 2013, the question on everyone’s lips is: will this continue in 2014?
While we all want to be optimistic and applaud New Year, it is also important to be realistic and not create false expectations for sellers nor sadden buyers with groundless assumptions of a superb year ahead.
While we all want to be optimistic and applaud New Year, it is also important to be realistic and not create false expectations for sellers nor sadden buyers with groundless assumptions of a superb year ahead.
Undoubtedly I am expecting further growth in the housing market in 2014. After all, population growth is picking up again and more people competing for vacant properties. The big question is, just how much price growth will there be?
To sum up my expectations in a word: moderate. This year has been about improvement in housing market – the house price increase by almost 9 per cent in the September section (seasonally adjusted). Expecting this recovery to continue and with the low interest rates helping drive it will be expected to remain into the New Year.
But there are alarming symbols to concern, both in the market and the overall economic conditions. Unemployment conditions have not improved and Pakistani economy is still growing very slowly, suggesting only moderate market growth in 2014, possibly slowing in the middle of the year.
I am concerned about this economic situation, especially unemployment, and of course hope it will improve, rather than slow or leave into negative numbers. And I hope we don’t see further exaggeration in the US dollar, putting more pressure on Pakistani industries and jobs.
Meanwhile, with the high volume of sell-off has come a decline in the clearance rate. This is in line in the downward trend in consumer opinion since its peak. Historically, clearance rates start to decline six to nine months after consumer sentiment does.
Then, historical trends show house price growth starts to slow. If this pattern continues, we could expect the growth in prices to start to moderate around mid- to late-2014.
Much depends on consumer response. In the past few months it has improved but the experts are cautious about how long this improvement may last.
Much depends on consumer response. In the past few months it has improved but the experts are cautious about how long this improvement may last.
The real estate experts depicts that house and apartment price figures showed increases in the last few months of 2013, with the large volumes of sale and purchase trend. Investor activity also increased – tight rental vacancy rates were good news for them – but there were fewer first-time buyers in the market. This is worrying, but is hopefully short-term.
Hopefully 2014 will see first-time buyers returning to a more balanced market with more increases in communication. But much will depend on the state of Pakistani economy, the unemployment rate and consumer sentiment.
Hopefully 2014 will see first-time buyers returning to a more balanced market with more increases in communication. But much will depend on the state of Pakistani economy, the unemployment rate and consumer sentiment.
RSS Feed